Mining Economics Techniques and Applications
2 – 4 Jul 2009
08.00 – 16.00
Holiday Inn Hotel
Pembicara / Fasilitator
Nuzulul is a Senior Analyst of Business Development Division in one of the Energy Companies in Indonesia that covers upstream and downstream oil and gas business , mining, and renewable energy. He was graduated from Mining Department, Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) in 1996, and completed his master of management in Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia in 2001. His career started as process engineer in Newmont Minahasa Raya and Nusa Halmahera Minerals and joint with E&P Planning division in the Energy Company after he finished his master degree in financial management. His expertise focus on Technical to Business Integration for Improved Asset Investment Decision Making using portfolio and optimization study, Econometric forecasting modeling, risk analysis, real options / market base valuation. His technical papers had been presented in International Conference such as International Energy Economics Conference in Perth (2008), Berlin (2006) and Zurich (2004).
This course will be divided into three major categories:
I. Basic Economic/Financial Evaluation
1.1 Overview of mining economics in Indonesia
1.2 Role of Project Evaluation
II. Common Techniques and Application for Economics Evaluation in Mining Project
2.1 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
– Time value of money: discount rates and period
– DCF criteria of value: NPV, IRR, pay back period
2.2 Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis, Spider and Tornado Diagrams
2.3 Monte Carlo Simulation
– The “expected” base case
– Probability distributions of inputs and result distribution of possible outputs
2.4 Decision Tree
– Value of Information
– Value of Flexibility
III. Modern Techniques and Application for Economics Evaluation in Mining Project
3.1 Overview of Real Options Valuation (ROV) method
3.2 Some Approaches in Real Options Methodology
– Binomial Lattice with option to shutdown temporary or/and expansion
– Financial Options Analogy (Closed Form Solution) with Black Scholes Merton Formula
– Latest Development of Real Options Method – Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) using forward pricing and comparing with DCF approach.
CASE STUDY TO BE DISCUSSED
1. Coal, Nickel and Gold Mine Economics
2. Making Decision in Mineral Exploration
3. Choose the best strategy to develop mine field using software ROSLS
4. Harvard Business Case “Bidding for the Antamina Mine”
As the course is Excel-Based, it would be highly desirable if participants could bring with them their own laptop computer
- Extensive set of course notes detailing valuation concepts, numerical calculations and practical valuation examples.
- Excel Spreadsheets Model for valuing mining project.
- Super Lattice Solver software (Trial Version) for Binomial Real Options Valuation
- Free Book “Project Economics Techniques and Applications” written by Nuzulul Haq
Wajib diikuti oleh
This course is ideal introduction for Engineers, Geologist, Economist, Finance, Asset and Project Manager who want to learn from conventional to advance project evaluation methodologies in mining industry.
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