PETROLEUM ECONOMICS AND INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING – TECHNIQUES AND APPLICATION – (From Conventional to Modern Methods)
2 – 4 Desember 2009
08.00 – 16.00
Hotel Holiday Inn – Bandung
Pembicara / Fasilitator
Nuzulul Haq is a Strategic Planning Analyst. He was graduated from Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) in 1996, and completed his master of management in Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia in 2001. His career started as engineer in multinational companies and joint with planning and economics group in Oil and Gas Company after he finished his master degree in financial management. His expertise focus on technical to business integration for improved asset investment decision making using portfolio and optimization study, Econometric forecasting modeling, risk analysis, real options / market base valuation.
His technical papers had been presented in International Energy Economics Association (IAEE) Conference in Perth (2008), Berlin (2006) and Zurich (2004).
Rp 8.000.000 juta
Biaya diluar akomodasi dan VAT
This course will be divided into three major categories:
I. Basic Economic/Financial Evaluation
– Overview of project economics in Indonesian PSC regime
– Role of Project Evaluation
II. Common Techniques and Application for Economics Evaluation in Petroleum Project
– Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
– Time value of money: discount rates and period
– DCF criteria of value: NPV, IRR, pay back period
– Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis, Spider and Tornado Diagrams
– Monte Carlo Simulation
o The “expected” base case
o Probability distributions of inputs and result distribution of possible outputs
– Decision Tree
o Expected Monetary Value of exploration Program
o Value of Information
o Value of Flexibility
III. Modern Techniques and Application for Economics Evaluation in Petroleum Project
– Overview of Real Options Valuation (ROV) method
– Some Approaches in Real Options Methodology
o Binomial Lattice in development and exploration program
o Financial Options Analogy (Closed Form Solution) from Paddock, Siegel and Smith’s model for undeveloped reserve
o Latest Development of Real Options Method –
Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) using forward pricing
and comparing with DCF approach.
CASE STUDY TO BE DISCUSSED
1. Valuation Undeveloped and Unexplored Reserve
2. Making Decision in Exploration Field
3. Bidding PSC Blocks
4. Harvard Business Case Study :
a. Penzoil vs Texaco
b. MW Petroleum
- Extensive set of course notes detailing valuation concepts, numerical calculations and practical valuation examples.
- Excel Spreadsheets Model for valuing petroleum projects in PSC regime.
- Super Lattice Solver software (Trial Version) for Binomial Real Options Valuation
- Book of “A New Era of Project Valuation and Investment Decision Techniques” written by Nuzulul Haq
Wajib diikuti oleh
This course is ideal introduction for Engineers, Geologist, Economist, Finance, Asset and Project Manager who want to learn from conventional to advance project evaluation methodologies in petroleum industry.
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